CEDS – SWOT Analysis and Resiliency

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2022-2026 CEDS Industry SWOT

Economic Resilience

What it means to be resilient and a resiliency champion?

Resiliency is an individual or entity’s ability to recover from shock or disruptions to daily activity. Aspects of resiliency can be obtained by asking “What will my organization do or think should be done to ensure my organization and the services it provides will be here tomorrow?” Often this is a strategic plan or back up plan set out by entities or departments to help them navigate when times become difficult or unclear.

Not just bouncing back…Bouncing Forward

“Another way of looking at resilience is the ability not only to bounce back but also to “bounce forward”- to recover and at the same time to enhance the capacities of the community or organization to better withstand future stresses.”

-Urban Land Institute, After Hurricane Sandy

CULTURE SWOT Analysis 

STRENGTHS:

• Diversity of cultures: Yupik, Alutiiq, Dena’ina
• Yupik speakers
• Crafters
• Beading- healing
• Community
• Participation and Collaboration with Schools
• Youth engaging in the Fly Fish academy
• Language Revitalization Efforts
• Traditional Dance Revitalization
• Honoring traditional values
• Subsistence Priority/ lifestyle
• Connection to local food and medicinal plant resources
• Documented Elder history that has been made into curriculum
• Promotion of traditional teaching of being Yupik/real person
• Wellness Circle of Life
• Day in our Bay material produced by BBNC
• Documented history
• Placenames project -BBNC active website
• Culture camps

WEAKNESSES:

• Need for more recordings and ability to store data- making available and needs to be transcribe
• Loss of language
• Lack of support to teach language in schools
• Lack of recognizing traditional Knowledge by western systems
• Lack of certs programs to help Cultural Bares be able to teach
• Changes to teaching traditional language and culture
• Lack of Elders passing on knowledge
• Lack of teachers/Cultural Bares
• Not enough History recorded from the Native community
• Most history from pre-1950 is recorded from the western culture

OPPORTUNITIES:

• Creating new jobs/in areas/villages to teach cultural activities, with travel opportunities
• ANA Language program
• Repeat/update 2009/2010- Filmed material from Day in Our Bay
• BBNC Education Foundation
• Use of modern technology
• BBRCTE Program and the Bristol Bay Campus -Zoom culture classes
• Sam Fox Museum: share recorded material on history/culture
• BBNA Economic Development sharing funding opportunities
• Ciulistet Emerging Leaders Program
• National Park Services and Bristol Bay Borough Chamber of Commerce Culture Projects
• Youth Engagement
• National Park Services Documents as a Foundation to revitalize
• Private Foundation funding
• Museums provide rights to traditional artifacts for local tribes through Native American Graves Protection & Repatriation Act
• Subsistence & Resource management changes

THREATS:

• Outmigration
• Systemic Racism
• Language changes by western systems for ease, like shortening counting system
• Technology -in distracting way
• Over Exposure to global opportunities creating distractions
• Lack of school system support
• Seiners/trollers bycatch-herring, chum, kings, and other fish
• Subsistence threats- to caribou and through regulations
• wild berry harvest changing due to climate change
• ATVs tundra/impacting berries and wild plants

ENERGY SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS: 

• Small grids with community-based cooperatives
• Residents with desire to independently install solar
• Renewable resources: Wind, Hydro, Solar, Biomass
• Sustainable Energy (SE) Program and Occupational Endorsement Certificate (OEC) UAF
• Multiple resources available to increase training and education opportunities.
• Grant opportunities.
• Require ample partner, private, and community engagement to succeed even for small projects.
• Igiugig’s hydrokinetic project has brought attention to the region and is an example of successful community-led energy initiative
• Regional Organizations/Tribal Organizations
• Growing resident awareness and expertise
• Manageable energy needs due to a large investment in energy efficiency in the past decades
• Good/sustainable economic base in wild salmon
• Wind & Water usable power available for the area
• Diesel Power Plant with long term outstanding operating and new people in training
• Ongoing Development of Run of River Hydropower
• Fishing Industry created reliable electric demands for larger electrical demands
• Healthy Resources, Salmon/Fish and Wildlife
• Energy – small grid, cooperative, assessable to community
• UAF – BB Campus, best local resource for energy
• Area wide – wind/water, reusable access
• Hydro/Wind, energy efficient design
• BBNC purchase of Bristol Alliance, in-region investment
• Bulk Fuel Storage/Build Fuel Farms to increase access in storage capacity
• Tribes, Non-profits, and Regional Corporation have a Unified Voice.
• Multiple partnerships: Tribal, City, for/non-profits, and cooperatives
• Sufficient availability of raw material and natural resources to support industry
• Availability of renewable energy to assist in transportation needs (electric vehicles)
• Management Expertise with established energy providers

WEAKNESSES:

• Isolated community from road system with high transportation and infrastructure costs.
• Limited labor force specialists: Training required on coordinated scale.
• Limited employment opportunities for trained individuals
• Past project failures weigh heavily on the community psyche.
• Environmental impact assessment and permitting costs
• Long payback on construction
• Growing costs of infrastructure development/aging legacy infrastructure
• Growing costs of regulatory compliance
• Isolated community from road system with high transportation and infrastructure costs.
• High Cost of Fuel
• Lack of readily available diesel (required to fly-in)
• Minimum technical workforce available
• Back-up alternative energy sources less dependable than diesel.
• Winter ice closing port
• Nushagak – afraid of power project, look at hydro as a threat, to lifestyle/resources
• Internet/Cell phone services are poor, need Improvement, No e-mails, Missed deadlines due to No Service!!, High cost!!, no discount
• Energy is a very technical field, need to be Energy literate
• Lack of energy literacy
• Innovating hydro-Integrating infrastructure
• Meshing Systems
• High electricity rates,
• Increased diesel dependency
• PCE – Threat of external factors
• Not educating communities
• Brownouts
• Too reliant on fossil fuels: Price volatility, impact to environment, Environmental risk of hydrocarbon shipping/storage
• Growing costs of infrastructure development/aging legacy infrastructure
• Growing costs of regulatory compliance
• High Cost of Energy: heating oil, electricity, cell service, internet
• Lack of reliable Cell or Internet Service
• Power project potential exploration threats
• Blocking access to resources
• Understanding the technicality of integrating energy systems
• PCE restricting development due to development costs making energy costs higher than current rate
• High dependency on diesel
• Lack of coordinated communication to plan for system implementation

OPPORTUNITIES:

• Reduce energy cost through sustainable energy initiatives by working collaboratively other communities, utility cooperative, tribal networks, Government agencies, NGOs dedicated to energy resiliency and stewardship, and University and associates.
• Reduce energy demand through efficiency
• Job creation and supports local merchants with proper coordination and cooperation.
• Reduce energy dependency and increase energy security
• Climate Change – every pebble in the pond counts.
• We have a unique opportunity here in BB to be leaders in micro-grid and sustainable research
• Grant opportunities are varied but need intensive partner cooperation from onset to succeed.
• Creation of economic opportunities for tourism, small/micro businesses.
• Upgrade winter trail markers
• Upgrade water and sewer systems
• Training for transportation and water and sewer management
• Building Resilient communities
• Wind, Solar, Hydropower
• Funding more available than in the past for renewable energy projects
• Runway expansion for larger diesel loads
• Ground source heat pumps
• More stable rate structure without reliance on diesel
• Policy changes to energy funding sources
• SWAMC’S energy audit program to install RSW systems on their boats.
• Increased technological development: Micro-grid development, Energy efficiency, Energy storage
• Rules change at BIA/DOE Indian Energy programs
• Ability to build consensus in local vision through regional programs
• Limited regional grid interties for power/telecom/transportation redundancies
• Climate change
• Energy workforce, pay lineman – high-cost – exploring regional workforce
• BBNC – BIATEDC grant-potential collaboration agreement energy resources, share resources
• Diesel – granting
• Structure – more predictable – price curve = price stabilization
• Energy workforce development for regional lineman and diesel mechanics
• BBNC and BIA models for collaborative shared resource
• Cost stabilization /predictable pricing
• Weatherization-return on invest
• Creating micro grids
• Biden Administration focus on renewable energy policies
• Energy Efficient Designs: with ability to integrate renewable energy, reduce fossil fuel use, and reduce carbon footprint affecting climate.
• Availability of Hydrokinetic Energy (RivGen Project)

THREATS:

• Lack of funding for projects
• Transportation
• Weather
• Price and cost volatility
• Fear and old habits
• Limited resources
• World security and political unrest
• Pandemic – Training opportunities affected
• Loss of government supported programs: Weatherization and efficiency
• Bulk fuel on riverside – erosion – climate change
• High dollar projects – Capital intensive up front.
• Funding & local capacity availability
• Requires specialized knowledge
• PCE going away could increase rates by 200%
• Rate Payers
• Municipalities – Cost off set by PCEs
• Communities Debts
• Rural Alaska’s PCEs
• Low Water Levels access to bulk fuels
• Climate Change – warm temperatures affecting transport
• Fuel, workforce team – inspection fuel storage – not maintained,
• Bulk fuel spilling into the river
• Lack of funding for projects
• Aging Infrastructure – no money to replace
• Energy Inefficiency
• Challenge – using excess energy, heat efficient in varying levels
• Return on Investment
• Lack Weatherization funding
• Housing – dire need
• Too many people leaving
• Outside providers
• Growing cost of infrastructure development
• Unstable political environment
• Lack of energy source redundancies – Single source power production in most communities – single path communications middle mile – Single tank farms in most communities
• River levels can jeopardize fuel delivery in river-based communities
• Global Fuel Prices affecting oil prices locally

Fishery SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS

• Strong fish runs, with high returns, in the Bristol Bay Fishery
• Pristine environment /good habitat in Bristol Bay
• Local habitat protection
• Locals embrace commercial fishery
• Highly knowledgeable commercial fishers on current politics
• Engaged commercial fishers
• Family owned and operated fishing businesses
• Experienced Fishers / vessel operators
• Knowledgeable of water pathways
• Chignik and Bristol Bay fisheries have strong name recognition to high quality product
• Local Participation

Bristol Bay Fishery Specific

• Well managed Bristol Bay Port Moller test fishery ADF&G
• Good processing capacity in Bristol Bay
• Adequate Infrastructure in Bristol Bay
• Ice barge for Bristol Bay fishers
• BBEDC-CDQ for Bristol Bay
• BBRSDA-Market Awareness
• Bristol Bay has entities that create opportunities

Chignik Fishery Specific

• Chignik area has the ear of ADF&G to focus on issues
• Well planned research project for the Chignik Fishery
• Chignik Intertribal Coalition network
• Chignik-sockeye are strong, good oil content and Flesh color-fetching high market value

WEAKNESSES

• Togiak Area– lower return numbers for Herring and salmon
• Local permit loss
• Income tax compliance problems
• Economic loss from permit loss
• Limited access to capital for fishery startups or for upgrades equipment
• Fewer shore side industry support businesses (shrinking fishery cluster)
• Issues locating or retaining crew for all fisheries
• Lack of reliable, affordable broadband
• High price of fishing equipment
• High-cost of shipping
• High-cost of start Up

Chignik Fishery Specific

• Low run returns on early run; low escapement
• Late run lower numbers
• Multiple economic disasters in 2016(Pinks), 2018 & 2020 (Reds)

OPPORTUNITIES

• Connecting youth to knowledge, resources, and people
• BBEDC-CDQ to help people enter Bristol Bay Fishery
• Local engagement/participation
• Better public relationships
• Direct marketing -to get higher price/pound
• Training for business management and operation management
• Trainings for; RSW/refrigeration, diesel mechanics, outboard repair, and fish quality
• Educating young people on how important our fisheries are to the local economy and that local participation is critical to bringing economic benefits from the fishery to our local communities
• Branding Bristol Bay Fishery
• Increasing access to fishery

Chignik Fishery Specific

• Qualified fishers
• Marine debris cleanup
• CEDS Planning Assistance
• Expand infrastructure

THREATS

• By catch from other fisheries, trawling and seining
• Climate change
• Farmed fish, Hatchery fish, lab grown meat/fish
• Local Permit loss
• Catch and release practices
• Togiak Area- Concerns with waste by sport fishing not honoring “take what you catch”
• Large King Salmon population decline
• Aged infrastructure: increase cost of operation/maintenance, and cost of reconstruct
• Graying of the Fleet
• Lack of young people interested in the fishery 
• Non-residents permit holders
• High market Value- low ex-vessel prices
• Processor not releasing price prior to season
• Herring fishery to primarily run by non-locals

Chignik Fishery Specific

• Slow response for economic recovery efforts
• Not enough processor/monopoly on buyers in Chignik’s.
• Hatcheries vs. wild Food web complications

TOURISM SWOT Analysis

STREGTHS

• Crafter/local Artists
• Flora & Fauna
• Pristine Environments
• Airport Hubs
• Transportation Routes /trails
• BBNC-local ownership
• Abundance of Lodges
• Sport fishing
• National & State Parks
• Increased visitors
• museums /welcome centers
• Hotels & Bed and Breakfasts
• BB culture & unique way of life
• Language
• Canneries
• World renowned location
• A typical Guests – wealthy tourists, repeat, committed

WEAKNESSES

• Lack of transportation –rentals
• Lack of Kayak trips
• Lack of Alternative lodging other than established lodges
• Lack of coordination on lead for projects
• Remote
• Cost barriers
• No half day or 4-hour options, half day activities
• Lack of guided tours
• No tourism agency
• Lack of Dinning options
• Limited capacity lodges
• Short season access for opportunities
• Hiking trails, no roads or marked trails
• Placenames in traditional languages not used in local parks
• Existing lodges do not have community connection

OPPORTUNITIES

• 6-pack for locals
• Instructors UAF for Tourism businesses
• UAF -First lights /ART classes
• Bristol Bay Guide Academy
• Resource guide for local businesses and locations
• Interpretative training
• Social media
• Local Business growth
• Funding Opportunity access
• Promotions through Airlines
• Access to local culture per established

THREATS:

• COVID
• Transportation Costs
• Weather /climate change, ice, volcanos, severe weather
• Outside consulting firms
• Coastal Erosion
• Changing plans
• Pebble
• Land Access/Use
• Resource Management Capacity

TRANSPORTATION & INFRSTRUCTURE SWOT Analysis

STREGTHS:

• Tribes, Non-profits, and Regional Corporation have a Unified Voice
• State maintained airports
• Multiple partnerships: Tribal, city, for/non- profits, and cooperatives.
• Sufficient availability of raw material and natural resources to support industry.
• Seafood processors create draw for marine transportation options for residents
• Waterways that link communities together
• Variety of air service providers / Air service diversity
• Access to clean drinking water-in most communities
• Fishing Industry
• Gravel / Rock availability
• Ocean control
• Water ways that link communities
• Airports in all communities
• Large runways – cargo
• Dock infrastructure
• Walking paths/bike paths
• Planning meetings, BBNC Transport system

WEAKNESSES:

• Tribes lack heavy equipment causing community roads to be poorly maintained
• Communities are lacking connections by overland roads.
• High cost of goods
• High cost of air travel
• High cost of fuel
• Lack of public transportation
• Lack of qualified/trained workers
• Inadequate Marine facilities
• Employment and training opportunities in the field of construction
• Winter ice closing port
• Lack of connectivity (Roads & bridges)
• Cost of fuel for travel or freight,
• Usage of roads and waterways
• Smaller population (causing increase of services/air travel/fuel etc.)
• Cost of sanitary sewage
• Lack of funding resources to expand or maintain
• Lack of land access to expand
• Lack of housing
• Small sized communities
• Tribes get BIA funds and Municipalities do not
• Lack of capacity in communities
• Water channels change making freight delivery difficult
• Dusty roads causing health issues
• Losing Native Allotments
• Communities have contaminated water sites or bad wells

OPPORTUNITIES:

• Creation of economic opportunities for tourism, small/micro businesses.
• Upgrade winter trail markers
• Upgrade water and sewer systems
• Training for transportation and water and sewer management
• Building Resilient communities
• Reliable connection of Iliamna Lake to Bristol Bay transportation corridor SWATP 
• Broadband service provider coops.
• With proper implementation there is opportunity to deploy Electric vehicles and heating systems
• Build Housing
• Partnerships between Tribes, Municipalities, State and Feds
• Learn about federal resources
• Bristol Bay is the gateway to clean water-Opportunity to protect water resources
• Marine migration
• Access to state and federal parks
• Tourism expansion
• More heavy equipment training for road maintenance
• Young people getting Commercial Driver’s License

THREATS:

• Not building resilient communities
• Global warming
• Climate Change
• State Budgets shrinking
• Federal Budgets
• School Closures
• Out migration of Native population
• Road connectivity: Continually rising cost of the delivery of goods and services
• State & federal money is short and will be for years to come
• Extreme Weather
• Water depth changes
• Natural disasters
• Diminishing population
• Funding availability (Maintenance etc.)
• State of Alaska shut down from budget cuts
• Lack of communication from the State
• Lack of the State of Alaska appreciating our local salmon industry
• Oil, Gas, and Mining exploration/operation
• Coastal Erosion
• Aging infrastructure and lack of access to capital to improve it

WORKFORCE SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS

• BBRCTE Bristol Bay Regional Career and Technical Education
• BBNA- workforce development
• BBNC-shareholder development
• Abundance of in region Workforce/Education efforts
• SAVEC
• Bristol Bay Campus
• School districts -SWRSD, DCSD, BBBSAD, LPSD
• Partnerships that leverage resources
• Employment services
• Leveraging state and federal funding
• AK Job center
• Community and Regional desire to train and hire local
• Local Hire Priority/Preference
• BBEDC-training opportunities
• Fly Fish Academy
• The BBs
• In Region Expertise

WEAKNESSES

• Broadband Access
• No Apprentice programs /Apprenticeships
• Substance abuse
• Lack of training housing (singular/local)
• Lack of centralized location for Adult learning
• Soft skills
• Lack of applicants for open positions

OPPORTUNITIES

• Workforce resource in partnerships around primary to post-secondary schooling
• Job tracts /training Pathways
• More partnership within existing network
• Development of training tracts for jobs that are hard to fill
• Collaborating with local employers to fill needs
• Training for various industries: water transportations, seafood, government, retail, construction, transportation on water, transportation truck, transportation air
• TERO or Tribal Employment Rights Office Tribal employment hiring preference
• Train skilled people for local Jobs
• Federal funding opportunities
• Partnerships
• Increasing work demands
• Broadband development
• Provide technical assistance to help smaller organizations access funding
• Developing a centralized place to locate project funding or resources
• Project labor pool/data base

THREATS

• COVID-19 for individuals catching it & out breaks preventing trainings
• State of Alaska funding cuts
• Outsourcing Jobs /importing workforce (seafood, tech, hospital)
• Inflation and supply chain shortages
• Contract work to out of region
• Contractors brining in their own workforce
• Lack of contractor’s awareness of local workforce capacity/ local hire
• Civil unrest on the national level
• Food security